Thursday, October 11, 2007

Paranoid but sticking to the plan

I was watching NBR last night and the bull market reached it's 5th birthday. It's been interesting how the outlook has changed since 2002. And the obvious question asked was how much more steam has the bull market got? Of course no one can really say for sure and day-to-day sentiment is always fickle and ever changing. However what I hear/read over and over lately is that overall valuations seem to be in check (vs dot com days), inflation is in check but (always a but!) the effects of housing may not be fully realized until 2008 and so there is still a reasonable risk of recession.

I've always tried to resist making drastic decisions based on media news/noise, and hopefully that won't change. Take aapl, goog, and vmw as just one example. They certainly get a lot of press these days. We don't own these (the P/E's alone are enough to scare me away) and I'll be the first to admit that it is sometimes frustrating to be on the sidelines and to see them soaring to new highs every day. And I know they have a greater perceived upside potential. But owning a meaningful number of shares of these stocks would break our risk adjusted plan, diversification strategy, and keep me well awake at night.

I am a bit obsessive & paranoid by nature and so I do check our MF & 401K account very frequently to make sure things are going according to plan. Can't help it. I think it's really interesting how emerging market and european market funds have outpaced the domestic funds (ie S&P500) in the past two years. I'm starting to get a little "tech heavy" (just no aapl, goog, and vmw) but I figure if you wanna reap a little more reward, you gotta take a little more risk.

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